12:00 pm update: winter storm on target

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Saw a report of mix at Paducah already. I have little to change after seeing the 12z model runs of the nam, gfs and cmc. I’m going to go over the WRF runs from NCEP today.

This evening a mixture of rain and snow will develop with a squall line heading into florida south of the surface low with the upper low tracking into TN. northwest of the upper low forcing will ample enough to develop precipitation with some banding and heavy precipitation rates.  I still think the Somerset region to just west of Pikeville is the bullseye for higher totals along with pine and black mountain above 1000 ft.

precipitation develops tonight

change to snow overnight.

snow into Wednesday morning west with a snowy Wednesday southeast

A lot of the forecasting remaining is pinning down where the bands will form on the mesoscale level and nailing down the exact track within 15 miles.

updated map

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4 Responses to “12:00 pm update: winter storm on target”

  1. mitchg Says:

    18z RUC showing heavier snow further north and west. stay tuned my final call will come around 6 pm CT before the snow starts.

  2. marsha Says:

    is that a good track for morgan co mitch?

  3. marsha Says:

    Mitch do you think NWS should have taken Morgan co out of the WSW to a WWA?

  4. mitch Says:

    A RUC,18Z NAM and 15Z SREF combo has me worried I’m to low with totals for several locations. mainly west of I-75.

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