NAM is garbage, CMC holds

by

some thoughts as tonight’s runs come in.

– the nam suffered massive convective feedback with the 00z run causing a false formation of the low several hundred miles southeast of the actual low. and the gfs tried to have convective feedback issues of it’s own.

– a look at the cmc is very similar to past runs of the model with heavy snow from Bowling Green into eastern Kentucky! the ukmet is similar as well but shunts things to quickly east at the end.

– gfs operational also edging west looks very similar to 12z euro.

gfs qpf

much further west now the 00z runs out of the four is the one that usually goes east so this a good sign.  the ensembles are right around this run as well.

the cmc continues a major hit for southeast Kentucky with snowfall in excess of 4 inches from Bowling green northeast to mt.sterling to Ashland and points southeast with parts in excess of 6 inches.

I strongly disagree with the model past saturday, that would be the cut-off of the century.

the ukmet is good for 4+ inches over southeast ky and lighter advisory amounts from Bowling Green to Ashland

the new euro appears to just go a hair further west of the gfs.

a low confidence FIRST CALL 

ANY TRACK CHANGE WILL ALTER AMOUNTS

– timing is Tuesday night and Wednesday

– I’ll go set-up and thermal profiles later today with an updated forecast after a look at the 12z models.

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7 Responses to “NAM is garbage, CMC holds”

  1. mitchg Says:

    couldn’t resist stayed up late to see euro qpf

    – snowfall further west than my first call 3-6 would actually be back toward bwg and to mt.sterling 1-3 lex, lou

    drumroll for any winter storm watches……

    the 00z euro continues my line of thinking of a winter storm next week, this run has an ice storm.

  2. mitchg Says:

    12z nam with more feedback issues.

  3. mitch Says:

    12z gfs farther west likely will make second call that has snow accumlations lines pushed northwest 3-6 could be all the way back to bwg to winchester with 1-3 for the lexington metro with accumulations north to LOU.

  4. mitch Says:

    12z cmc 50 miles further west with surface low track.

  5. marsha Says:

    Mitch what does this mean for eastern ky? Wkyt just said rain for us…..

    • mitch Says:

      marsha I don’t I’m going to change from your 3-6 in morgan with the next update. I’m still thinking dynamical cooling will change any mix quickly to snow.

  6. mitch Says:

    NCEP WRF ARW showing some thundersnow making it’s way into southern ky with this storm, CMC qpf to light in my view given a track that is even further northwest of the gfs.

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