cone of uncertainity remains

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is anyone surprised by that title. if you are I’m flattered as you think very highly of me. However Model guidance shows a wide variety of possibilities still for Tue-Wed.  Yes that does feature a 6 to perhaps 12 inch snow with locally higher amounts for the region with a dusting on the other end.  with the 00z runs I see an overall slight shift west. I’m going to discount the NOGAPS.

highlights

–  ECMWF shifted west along with GFS, CMC slightly east of past run, UKMET similar to CMC and JMA has no 00z run

– the low appears to want to form near Houston or western Louisiana this raises chances for southern Kentucky

– precipitation may start as rain however provided the 850 mb temp is below 0*C it will change quickly to snow

– threat remains for over 4 inches of snow with the even a good shot at a 6-12 with locally higher totals

– if the precipitation comes far enough north snow develops Tuesday  morning in Bowling Green and elsewhere Tuesday afternoon

– snow lasts itno Wednesday morning

– snow could be heavy at times with thunderstorms moving into the snow shield  near the low center. heaviest totals just to the west and northwest of the low track  

the NAM really blows things up.

Tuesday afternoon

Tuesday evening

Tuesday overnight

GFS Tuesday morning

Tuesday night

– here to me it seems the GFS takes to far of an east jog  and I woult think that high would keep it further west instead of making it almost a cut-off

that more eastward moving solution is showing up but not as much in the cmc and ukmet runs.

UKMET

the cmc was a little odd as well taking the low into eastern TN then shunting it due east.  teh ECMWF qpf set-up is similar to gfs.

we have the gfs and ecmwf further east and the cmc,jam,ukmet further west with half of the gfs ensembles.

favored track above cone below

by the way another winter storm is loking more likely next week the 00z euro really shows it well. Arctic air shouls spread in after a quick warmup friday. with the arctic air in place more systems dive out the pac nw into the southern plains we’re in a favorable region next week for more fun.  14 day updated.

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15 Responses to “cone of uncertainity remains”

  1. Seth Says:

    Should be interesting with the winter storm next week. I hope it’s not too cold like the gfs long range shows because that will suppress all the good storms.

  2. mitchg Says:

    12z runs today so far are east with just light snow for southern and southeastern ky. still waiting on a big 6+ snow in my world looking less likely for mid week

  3. rlhopkinswx Says:

    I’m with you. The 12z model runs were less than impressive. Crazy how the NAM went from a foot or more of snow to not much in less than 12 hours. Oh well. Maybe the GFS should be taken more serious! LOL

  4. mitchg Says:

    no so fast my friends with the new 12z cmc suggesting this game isn’t over in fact the most impressive run of the model yet.

  5. henry Says:

    euro was west

  6. Seth Says:

    Why are the models acting all crazy like this? Even more crazier than usual. Isn’t the storm already ashore? I thought the models would have a better time with the system once it starts developing.

    Model madness drives me crazy!

  7. mitchg Says:

    it appears the fight will continue among the models as the cmc and ukmet have a counter for the nam, gfs and nogaps awaiting the 12z ecmwf, gfs ensembles and jma.

  8. mitchg Says:

    gfs ensembles coming in and are drumroll………………………….

    joining the ukmet and cmc camp!

  9. henry Says:

    bailey says it was west.. the 12z

  10. mitchg Says:

    JMA= big snow

  11. appsman Says:

    Mitch…is the euro sniffing out anotherstorm developing this weekend in the gulf?

  12. mitchg Says:

    very little west of I-75 on the euro still. east ky gets a decent snow event but not to extreme as cmc, jma

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