An International Flavor

by

model trends

– nam has gone from a big storm to little

– gfs continues to be further east on the cone, the ensembles are much further west

–  12z ECMWf has shifted west from past runs but still not enough from a bwg to lex to ash line northwest for a major snow

– some of the models are trending warmer aloft meaning more rain could occur at the start

–  the cmc has been pro storm all along and has trended even further west

– ukmet still shows a storm and the nogaps still a no-show

– JMA still a big snow maintaining it’s run yesterday

I’m going to show you a few things you may not have looked at yet

GFS ensembles qpf for the storm

link is provided image to large to place on site. notice the majority of the members single out the operational run the 1st run shown top left as an outlier. this run is the 12z gfs you see on ncep’s site.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zp72f084.html

the latest cmc tracks the low west of the mountains in that case lookout Nashville, BWG, London, Jackson, Ashland as a heavy snow band would track over these locations.

Overall We’re still in waiting mode folks. the cone of uncertainty of remains the same in my view with the same prefered track.

Advertisements

5 Responses to “An International Flavor”

  1. Vinny Says:

    I’ll take the bottom left..!

    Mitch, question… Is the JMA ever correct in the winter seasons…?

  2. henry Says:

    mitch did u see the new canadian>

  3. Vinny Says:

    Thnx!!! Hope that in includes Lex

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: