storm update: model solutions still project a cone of uncertainity

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we still have the cone of uncertainty but the model positions on this cone are going back and forth like crazy. This means the difference between 6 to perhaps as much as 16 inches to just flurries or a dusting. Our region is on the edge and this could go either way but be advised modeling is showing the potential for a snowfall is excess of 6 inches in the state particularly the SE.  The timeframe is Tuesday morning  into Wednesday.

some points

– gfs is still lost but starting to find it’s way back to reality

– I have noticed in the past the 12z euro is always east of the 00z run. So the 00z euro was west this morning then the 12z run this trend tells me the 00z run overnight  will be back to the west

– JMA, Navy NOGAPS and UKMET have shifted west slightly west of my path yesterday with the NAM coming in close to it

– Dynamical cooling will change any rain quickly to snow

– this snow if it falls will be a heavy wet snow and be hard to shovel

– the usual trend is west with big storms. How many times in the past has a storm looked promising a few days out only to see a west shift.

new cone of uncertainty heavy snow falls north and west of low track

my prefered track still yields the circled regions north and west of the low track to have a decent chance at 4 or more inches of snow.

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2 Responses to “storm update: model solutions still project a cone of uncertainity”

  1. marsha Says:

    Mitch what is the chance morgan co in eastern ky getting a big snow????

  2. Vinny Says:

    Anyway you could stretch that heavy snow line over Fayette..???

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