FIRST CALL: light period of snow Sunday afternoon into early Monday

by

we will have a system track from the northern Rockies to the Arkansas region by Sunday night. Isentropic lift will aid in the development of a period of snow to our west will track into Kentucky Sunday afternoon and last into monday morning. temperatures will near freezing in southern Kentucky and below freezing elsewhere. This means more slick spots are likely from the snowfall. This period of snow will be the strongest out near the Ozarks where there is more isentropic lift 2-6 inches could fall in spots there. however isentropic lift is weaker further east and the snow shield will encounter upper level dry air as shown on NAM BUFKIT. the highest amounts will be in the Bowling Green region with Ashland seeing little by noon Monday.

NAM isentropic maps ( again where the highest pressure and moisture advection measured in mixing ratios are located that is where the best lift for precipitation development)

Sunday  morning  best lift over MO

notice how by Sunday night the advections are further east and weeker.

here is the gfs for Sunday noontime

Sunday night

the NAM has a little more and the CMC is most robust with qpf of .1 to .2 over south central Kentucky.

– a period of snow spreads into western Kentucky Sunday afternoon and ends Monday morning

FIRST CALL

STORM UPDATE

I’m not making changes this morning with regards to the storm. New Orleans to Charlotte, NC  to cape cod still looks good. several models bringing 6-13 to east ky.

Advertisements

2 Responses to “FIRST CALL: light period of snow Sunday afternoon into early Monday”

  1. mitchg Says:

    it appears the ukmet and ecmwf have shifted east tonight with the big storm.

  2. james Says:

    Mitch, did you see the 12z nam? Looking good so far as I can tell. Your thoughts?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: