delayed post

by

It has  been a much busier day than I thought as some things came up. Good news is for anyone interested there will still be  a scep program this year w/noaa!

We have a lot to cover later today. tomorrow is just clouds and flurries from a week clipper. The fun begins Sunday and things really get fun Tuesday and Wednesday

some quick hitter points

– the  operational GFS is garbage it beat me bad last week but I think the bias that helped it last time will make it look silly this go around. half of the ensembles show a major storm which is what the models not named gfs have.

–  Light snow from the first piece of energy rotating with a major east coast trough could start Sunday, FIRST CALL for Sunday and early monday could come tonight. No first call for several days for Tue-Wed.

– this first piece should  hold and wait for a very strong piece of energy which develops a low near new Orleans by early Tuesday

– this low explodes as it tracks northeast with a band of heavy snow northwest of it

– modeled tracks in the storm camp vary

track cone we have the ukmet the furthest west and the JMA furthest east

this map shows where the heavy snow band tracks along my prefered track which is very similar to the 12z euro. In the heavy snow band odds favor a snowfall of over 6 inches with a few totals over a foot.

However we are still several days away and changes to my prefered track are likely. I also think any concerns about highs near 40 Tuesday should be quickly countered by dynamical cooling when any would start.

Advertisements

9 Responses to “delayed post”

  1. Seth Says:

    Is this system in any way similar to the dec 19-20 2009 snowstorm that hit eastern kentucky with super high totals?

  2. mitchg Says:

    somewhat. track will be further west in my view.

  3. mitchg Says:

    A comment about a certain private forecasting group in state college, PA with starts with an A

    they try to hype up the east coast. as along as the gfs continues to show a east coast storm they will go with that.

  4. mitchg Says:

    00z nam upper air height pattern at 500 mb very smilar to that of the ecmwf not the gfs.

    00z nam says a snowy rush hour Monday as well with a quick huitting period of snow sunday night into monday.

  5. riddle92 Says:

    hey mitch, its lincoln. Im trying to sub to your site but cant find where to sub at..

  6. Vinny Says:

    Mitch, you are doing an outstanding job this winter…

  7. marsha Says:

    Mitch is it still looking like a big one for eastern ky?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: