concerns about Thursday’s snow and some winter pics

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– should have stuck to that frz rain chance early today I don’t there was any accums of it though.

Two concerns I see today

– the low will be very quickly through the region and may in fact move even faster along which will limit accumulations.

–  WAA ahead of the front from a Bowling Green to Ashland line temps warm into the mid and upper 30’s at precipitation onset cutting down on the period of snow even more with some rain falling.

These two concerns really come into play on the model runs today thus the gfs and ecmwf thinking is for a general period of snow from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with about 2-4 inches cut down to 1-3 for the south and southeast with the warmer temps.

– the cmc and nam models delay the incursion of arctic cold which would kick the storm and actually try to phase the two streams which cause for snow to really develop and become heavy at times Thursday night and higher amounts closer to 6 inches could occur.

again first call tomorrow!

– further down the road groundhog day may occur early this year next  Monday with the next system as it looks rather similar but weaker than thursday’s event. I’ll update the 14 day with temperatures later today.

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8 Responses to “concerns about Thursday’s snow and some winter pics”

  1. mitchg Says:

    12z ecmwf has the region in the 40’s thursday afternoon with a very fast frontal passage. many areas will struggle to see an inch if correct.

  2. mitch Says:

    gfs and ecmwf vs nam and cmc

    model mayham continues.

  3. Hardball Says:

    Mitch, you plan on having an eveing update? Thx man.

  4. mitch Says:

    00z nam looks impressive. some comments on this run

    – still showing a brief period of rain at the start
    – then a changeover to about 6 hours of heavy snow regionwide
    – could see some thunderstorms move into the snow shield as well, thundersnow?
    – talking a general 3-6 on this run with local amounts to 8.

    will the gfs continue the trend toward the nam???

  5. Vinny Says:

    Mitch:

    00z NAM is very impressive my man..! WOW…

  6. tornadolarkin Says:

    S-N-O-W snow snow snow

  7. mitchg Says:

    first call manily to focus on the 21z sref tonight. the sref is the basically the ensembles of varoius US models and usually beats them when coming to predict precipitation amounts. of note is the impressive amounts of omega lift taking place which leads to upward motion in the atmosphere to deelvop precipitation. which for several hours Thursday night snow will likely come down heavy for a while.

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