snow chances going up for Thursday/Friday

by

today model mayhem may be coming to end as we have very good agreement this afternoon on the expected weather for late this week. Modeling is suggesting that a low pressure tracks from the southern plains across the gulf coast states and off the carolina coast. this a common track for may of the winter storms that have occurred over the last decade as discussed on the kentuckyweathercenter yesterday. These type of lows that have this track often bring a sizeable quick hitting 12-18  hours of snow with 3-6 inches regionwide. However eventhough confidence is much higher in a winter storm late this week expected totals will not be forecasted untill Tuesday when the low enters the upper air network in the pac nw.

First we have to back track to tonight. the region will be in warm air advection with a system tracking across the upper plains and a secondary low going up the east coast. This means steady or slowly falling temperatures to around 30 for tonight. The GFS hints at some light freezing rain early Monday in BWG. However i suspect precipitation holds off till the afternoon in the form of rain showers with highs near 40. Showers are likely Monday night with the WAA and southerly winds temps hold steady just under 40. On Tuesday more energy swinging around the trough allows for more light rain during the day along the frontal boundary. This portion of the system heads into the upper lakes Tuesday night and the precipitation should end as snow showers with cold air advection dropping temperatures into the 20’s by Wednesday morning.  light accumulations under 1/2 inch could provide for some slick spots Wednesday morning. black ice may also occur as well. Overall I expect rainfall mounts to be quite light under 1/4 inch with a rather disorganized system should result in periods of showers instead of a steady rain.

most of the modeling looks like the GFS

monday night

first image monday night last image Tuesday night into Wednesday.  One thing to watch is the models is this secondary energy coming into play Tuesday is very similar to the secondary low theory I discuss from time to time and may turn out to be a hair stronger than outlined as the models get a better handle on it.

Thursday and Friday is the main story of the week. It looking more and more like a white Thursday and Friday for the region. Low pressure develops over the southern plains and tracks east along a frontal boundary and inverted trough. I think snow becomes likely with temperatures around 30 with snow Thursday night and early Friday as temperatures fall to around 2o Friday morning.

I’ll have some pictures with the next post from the 1st half of winter.  I will still be updating tomorrow even with the MLK holiday.

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8 Responses to “snow chances going up for Thursday/Friday”

  1. james Says:

    Thanks Mitch. Sounding good for later this week. Will be checking your updates.

  2. tornadolarkin Says:

    Loving that track.

  3. Hardball Says:

    Thanks Mitch, trying not to get excited yet. What are your thoughts on the talk of an artic plunge following this system? Thx again.

    • mitchg Says:

      that is actually being harder to pin down than the snowfall for thu-fri. I think daytime temps in the upper 10’s friday with lows saturday morning getting close to 0 and at least some mesonet sites going below zero again thanks to snowcover.

  4. mitchg Says:

    cmc now advertising clipper on steriods for next sunday behind a heavy snowfall on friday with bitter cold.

  5. tornadolarkin Says:

    Mitch, 0z GGEM goes NUTS on snowfall for the area.
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/GGEM.html

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