model mayhem continues


very few changes flurries today in few spots, light rain showers monday with an early frz rain threat then showers on Tuesday ending as flurries.

I’m still skeptical on snow late this week yesterday it appeared the modeling was trending for a snowy thursday. That is not the case today.

most models get  here by Wednesday night

notice there is an arctic high to the northeast of the low both the cmc and ecmwf have this now and have gone from snowy model runs to being drier with the new runs. however ironically the gfs has trended wetter in the past 3 runs but a look at ensembles are much drier for late next week. 

I will point out the past few cmc runs have been very odd and the new 00z ecmwf seems off.


4 Responses to “model mayhem continues”

  1. mitchg Says:

    12z gfs continues the wetter trend for the gfs model.

  2. mitchg Says:

    very good agreement with 12z cmc and gfs both showing 3-6 snows thursday night.

  3. james Says:

    That’s good to see the gfs coming around. Will be interesting watching it the next few days.

  4. Seth Says:

    One thing I will note on that run of the gfs is that there seems to be a bit of WAA ahead of the thurs-fri storm. At least I think that’s what it is given the position of the 32 degree line.

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