winter’s advertised mid month extreme could be in the cards

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A look at the 12z models show some interesting times by Thursday which could go to the extreme!

First I have no reason to change things up through Tuesday.  This is from the last post

3. On Sunday this same front stalls southeast of the region with mostly cloudy skies and highs near 32. Sunday night the front will move back north in advance of a low over the upper plains which will allow for another surge off waa this time with more moisture. I’m thinking a mix of light freezing rain and rain is likely monday morning followed by showers into Tuesday with some sw winds shifting to nw Tuesday. it should be raw with temps from the 30′s to low 40′s. This may all end as flurries Tuesday night.

However there is remote chance a second secondary low develops around the base of the trough late Tuesday night. However I’ve never seen a system produce 2 secondary lows and one of them being way back of the main system away from the majority of the faster jet associated with the main low and the region of highest vorticity on this 12z run suggests for a weaker further southeast low if it is to develop. No other model really pick this up as well. For now I will keep flurries for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Wednesday the next storm dives into the Rockies from the pac nw and moves east along a front with the coldest air of the season behind it. The main question is if the front will just blow through and suppress the system in texas meaning snow showers thursday or does it allow for the low to develop along the front and track across the south and up the east coast which would give the region a widespread snowfall with several inches of accumulation for thursday into Friday.

12z model runs

GFS- flurries on thursday

ECMWF- freezing rain south changing quickly to snow with snow for the north  winter storm

CMC- rain changing to heavy snow, winter storm

 JMA- 1-4 snow band of snow along front , advisory event  

NOGAPS- snow showers thursday suppression , potential advisory event

now the GFS beat me for ealy this week with it trying to show the bias, the physics parameters  in the model which deal in energy transfer allowed for accurate modeling of this system. This go around a GFS bias for supression of systems could be at work. we’ll see.

behind the system friday should be the coldest day of the year as the ecmwf by saturday morning has the region from -5 to -10*F due to the snowcover without it would still be very cold.

another  system should occur around the 24th with a chance for light snow.

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One Response to “winter’s advertised mid month extreme could be in the cards”

  1. mitchg Says:

    18z gfs trending toward ecmwf.

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