1/2 of a memorable winter in the books still 1/2 to go!

by

today is the midterm of meteorological winter. for the region it has been cold with a seasons worth of snow in only the first half of winter.  I’ll have some pics on Saturday to share.

1. Model agreement is actually much better today compared to the last several days.

2. Today ahead of a cold front we should see a nice surge of waa with models busting low on the highs I expect highs from 40-45 today across the region with some southerly flow and early sunshine. this front pushes through tonight with a chance for flurries and lows in the mid to upper 20’s.

3. On Sunday this same front stalls southeast of the region with mostly cloudy skies and highs near 32. Sunday night the front will move back north in advance of a low over the upper plains which will allow for another surge off waa this time with more moisture. I’m thinking a mix of light freezing rain and rain is likely monday morning followed by showers into Tuesday with some sw winds shifting to nw Tuesday. it should be raw with temps from the 30’s to low 40’s. This may all end as flurries Tuesday night.

my thinking earlier in the week underestimated the strength of the energy in the northern plains thus a stronger low further north

GFS Monday am

GFS Tuesday morning

one low cuts into the lakes thus the warm air advection into the region with a secondary well off the east coast.

4. Wednesday should be dry with a slight cooldown

5. Snow is becoming increasing likely for Thursday in fact the ECMWF track of this system is gold for snow in our region. the qpf on this run is from .2 to .5 with 30’s southeast and 20’s north this could yield a substantial snow for the region. However the gfs and cmc have lighter qpf in the form though and the jma has more qpf in the form of snow. I’ll take a closer look at this system later today.

wed pm

thu pm

fri pm

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One Response to “1/2 of a memorable winter in the books still 1/2 to go!”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Remember Mitch what you said about the gfs outside of like 5 days being garbage!!!!! 🙂

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