What should happen next week

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24 hours ago the gfs had the low track from Bismark to the twin cities to sue st.marie to Toronto. now the gfs has the storm diving further southeast into the Missouri valley then cutting up west of the mountains. This a correction in the right direction but one more correction is needed. The GFS is fixing its bias of putting to much into the northern stream and trying to be to fast sending energy which forms low pressure east faster. The GFS is about half way there with the correction in my view. Its still sending the storm to fast to the northeast Monday. This means less precipitation Monday as the low hangs back in the deep south then tracks either west or east of the mountains Tuesday. If it’s west a sloppy mix and cold rain if it goes east of mountains then bring out those shovels.  I feel fairly confident in my thinking as it has support from the GFS and ECMWF ensembles.

been a long day so keeping it short untill I gain even  more confidence on this apps track. The big storm for the 15-18th appears on track folks don’t let the modeling fool you!  meteorology is more than models it’s an understanding of general patterns and being able to dissect what’s going on through map analysis ( doesn’t have to be hand lol) I haven’t seen any forecasters changing drastically from run to run of one model this type of thinking will get even the observer such as yourself burned as some more corrections will be coming to the modeling.

oh yeah tonight’s snow band is rather impressive out east  and I may bust in a few spots with high snow ratios and moderate snow showers.

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9 Responses to “What should happen next week”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Great job Mitch!!! Glad you don’t like waffles. 😉

  2. D. Smith Says:

    Pikeville received anywhere from 2 to 6 inches last night.

  3. JonB Says:

    How do you think things will play out next week mitch?

  4. mitchg Says:

    still staying the course the ecmwf, gfs and cmc all have three different solutions. both involve the motion of the first low monday. the ecmwf holds back slightly to long and is to far southeast with the track. the gfs is way to fast kicking the low northeast and is to fast and northwest with the track and precip timing. low pressure should form over Louisiana Monday night reach either side of pikeville by Tuesday morning then reach Youngstown,OH or Buffalo by early wednesday.

    dgex model on the right track.

  5. mitch Says:

    12z cmc run getting there. stil 3 different solutions. pick a model forecasts not advised!

  6. tornadolarkin Says:

    To me, Mitch, this honestly looks like the set up for an ice storm. :/

  7. mitchg Says:

    set-up is not the 09 ice storm which had considerabily more overrunning precipitation. precipitation from this storm will be from delevoping low pressure. the surface low with the 09 ice storm was weak along the gulf coast.

    • Festus Porkmeyer Says:

      Love your insight thanks for the updates. What exactly do the differences between 09 and now mean? More rain? More ice? More snow? Hell frozing over? Etc.

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