1:00 am update: snow moving in later this morning

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as i pointed out earlier I like the use of WRF with this system. we have considerable positive vorticity advection into the region tomorrow morning with the upper low passing across the Ohio river. this will lead to large scale upward motion and the development of snow for a large portion of the region this morning which will move east. This snow should start to develop during the rush hour be focused in the I-65 regions in the morning and the 1-75 regions around noontime. Southern and Eastern Kentucky will miss out for the part with a track well to the NW although some snow will fall. Dry slots, temperatures above freezing and the lack of moisture will keep snowfall down. on the flip side near the low track temperatures will be below freezing leading to slick spots with the snow being moderate at times and potentially banding due to a favorable dynamic set-up.

WRF-NMM

Tuesday rush hour

Tuesday late morning

Tuesday early afternoon

qpf

the RUC shows a little more snow for southern Kentucky

Tuesday am rush hour

tuesday noontime

updated snow map now-Tuesday 7 pm et

I have high confidence over the broad 1-3 region but low confidence in where banding will occur to take some regions to 2-5. that WRF simulation has it in the Lexington region, the PVA which promotes upward motion favors the Louisville region. my totals may seem low for the south and east but again there is a lot going against snow.

i’ll update the snow forecast for tue night-thu later on, no changes there as of now. also going to add flurries for friday.

model mayham for next week in full effect. I still think somehow we get a winter storm next week.

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3 Responses to “1:00 am update: snow moving in later this morning”

  1. james Says:

    Snowing good in Lexington now.

  2. james Says:

    Mitch, the 6z gfs has most of the precip. gone by the time the cold air arives next Mon and Tues. Hope the runs change before then.

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