lowering totals for Tuesday

by

There has been a last minute track change further northwest with today’s data.

this allows for several things

– advection of warm air further north

– dry slot further north

– lower snow ratios

snow should break out after midnight regionwide tonight with a dry slot moving into southern kentucky by morning. periods of snow are likely all day tuesday further northwest with a dry warm slot further southwest.

this is why I haven’t been to concerned for a major snowfall out of this in fact from Monday night into late Tuesday afternoon some areas will struggle to see an inch.

however the snow showers from Tuesday night through Thursday still look impressive during this long duration accumulations are likely.

20:1 snow ratios will also allow for totals in this range.

Modeling with regards to next weekend is warmer now with a delayed arctic air into the nation. Early next week there is going to be a big storm I had thought Sunday but if the arctic air is more delayed it may be more Tuesday into Wednesday next week. As the new 12z gfs and this morning’s euro run match up well. Still don;t see how we don’t see a big storm out of this pattern from the 15th-18th.

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