first day of a very busy week

by

first for tonight

snow is spreading north in fact I’ve moved the whole system northward a touch overnight for snow totals between now and Monday evening.

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

forecast

I’ve added a few regions where snow may fall and raised some totals along the southern Kentucky parkway.

After looking at the new model data and set-up for Tuesday i have no changes

from Tuesday night through thursday I’m expecting numerous snow showers with upslope kicking in as well. with temperatures getting even colder snow ratios should be from 20-30:1.

updated snow map

the gfs and the cmc are showing an arctic front move into the region  this weekend with low pressure formation in texas my take is the new runs are to far south and earlier runs on sunday were closer to the actual solution. also of note with bitter cold air coming into play snow ratios may be 20-30:1 Sunday and Monday. Light snow falls saturday the front hangs up then low pressure forms in the plains and snow breaks out due to isentropic lift across the region Sunday lasting into Monday. right now my thinking is this may be widespread snowstorm for the region. However the low could track further south or north which will have large impacts on precipitation type and amounts. The ECMWF as of the 12z run sunday has been considerably less consistent with this period of the forecast in the last several runs and I still think it’s having problems with energy over the pac nw.

early thoughts map the snowst. is snowstorm threat

overall this looks to be a very snowy week regionwide. after this the well hyped cold comes to pass which is updated in the 14 day details.

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2 Responses to “first day of a very busy week”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    next weekend looking nice Mitch!!!!!

  2. mitchg Says:

    lowering totals for tomorrow with new update with a typical last minute west shift in the track.

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