updated forecasts

by

1. I like what I put out last night for snowfall through Monday from the gulf coast low. temperatures will be in the 20’s to 30 Monday so slick spots will occur where it snows.

I expect winter weather advisories will be posted this afternoon for a few counties.

Some of the modeling has come slightly east with the low track for Monday night and Tuesday. This would limit WAA into eastern Kentucky somewhat but I still think the heaviest snow will fall along and northwest of the low track .  The NWS forecaster could issue a winter storm watch for the Louisville region based on some of data but I think it is marginal for a 4 inch snow and could go either way. I still think east ky gets a dry slot Tuesday afternoon with a few hours early in the afternoon above freezing.

Make sure to check out the 12z gfs on next weekend as that run has a 6 inch snowstorm for the region but not so fast as the ecmwf has 50’s and rain. I Think the euro once again having issues with energy in the west the 12z runs have been much colder than the 00z in recent days on the euro.  the gfs is more locked into this solution The CMC is trending more toward the gfs solution. we’ll see how this evolves.

also still 1/2 to 3 inches of snow tue night-wed from snow showers highest in the upslope regions.

Advertisements

7 Responses to “updated forecasts”

  1. james Says:

    Thanks Mitch. Not looking like a lot for the Lexington area, but maybe next weekends storm will get us.

  2. mitchg Says:

    – winter weather advisory ky/tn border counties
    – no winter storm watch issued

  3. mitchg Says:

    good discussion on some of the concerns I have for east ky on this snow from jkl office.
    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

  4. mitchg Says:

    no winter storm watch for louisville region but for covington region.
    winter storm watch northern ky

  5. Hardball Says:

    Hey Mitch, what are your thoughts on the radar returns at this point? As expected or inching a little more north than thought? Thanks man.

  6. mitchg Says:

    updating shortly for northerly trend in radar tonight.

  7. mitchg Says:

    getting more impressed with wednesday’s snow showers.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: