first call’s galore

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we have the first call for 3 of the weeks 4 snow  chances. Have never said that lien before folks, earlier in the week I pointed out that a 2 week period of stormy and cold weather is coming, sure enough it is here with the Richmond mesonet going below zero tonight due to the snowcover.

First however an important reminder if you’re without power in the Frankfort region tonight and Sunday make sure to heat your homes smartly and avoid CO2 emissions within your residence or heating methods that may start fires. be smart and safe folks.

Low pressure #1

A winter storm will track along the gulf coast states throwing some moisture into the region. Modeling and the ensembles are still mixed the northern extreme is the 21z sref and the southern extreme is the 00z nam for now will go with a model blend which i usually don’t like to do but with low confidence in how moisture works into the state seems like the best path at this point.

00z nam

21z sref

a blend of these two also matches up with the 12z ecmwf from saturday.

snow develops across the south sunday night spreading northeast on monday and ending by monday night with temperatures below freezing slick spots will develop and the morning rush will be impacted.  Temperatures should be in the mid 10’s north to mid 20’s south after highs sunday in the upper 20’s.

low pressure # 2

another system will track  from texas and develop surface low pressure over eastern Kentucky then move toward Pittsburgh for Monday night through Tuesday night. Dynamics and upper air support will be present to support a band of snow along and west of the low track. we also have PVA moving into the region as well which promotes the development of snow bands near and west of the track. east of the track my thinking is after a little snow to start many regions will get dry slotted and rise above freezing Tuesday . qpf should be from .1-.25 west of 1-75 and less than .1 east of I-75, snow ratios of 15:1 are expected further west with temperatures in the 20’s and around 10:1 or even less further east with lows in the 20’s and highs in the mid 30’s.  I expect a very tricky rush hour Tuesday for Louisville, Bowling Green and Lexington.  Slick spots will be likely. I could also see winter storm watches issued for the I-71 region sometime tomorrow.

for Tuesday night through Wednesday night temperatures should be falling with more disturbances and snow showers for our third snow chance of the week I expect most regions to see around 1/2 inch with totals up to 2 inches possible in spots. upslope counties near and along the VA border could pick up to 4 inches of accumulation.

this brings us to the 4th snow chance of the week next weekend. I still this will be a major winter storm for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys with the potential for heavy snows, ice storm or flooding rain. notice how the system early next week I never hyped now that the snow maps are out for it you should know now why i kept the chat low on that snow chance. This storm I’m hyping up a lot. The models are coming around to the general idea of a WAA surge friday followed by a frontal passage saturday with light mixed precipitation then a strong low pressure to form in texas with arctic air surging in from the north and more WAA surging in from the south with lots of isentropic lift and moisture early next week.

14 day updated with more details on day to day temps and conditions.

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One Response to “first call’s galore”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Man Mitch, weekend storm sounds great!!! 🙂

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