starting a 10 day period where old man winter in is charge

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just going to point out a few things before a FIRST CALL overnight for both parts 1 and 2 this week. The models agree on a synoptic set-up that takes one low across the deep south and a second low which tracks from texas into the upper Ohio valley. Normally these cutter lows result in changing to rain due to strong amounts of WAA making any wintry precipitation a mix. However a fairaly cold airmass will be in place.

part 1: the majority of this storm stays south but a band of snow could move into southern Kentucky during the day Monday How far north this gets will be the forecast challenge. Right now a good chance for a messy rush hour in BWG and Somerset Monday morning. This snow moves east Monday night.

Part 2: This is where I may have my thinking back that this is not a winter storm for the region. A low pressure tracks from southern texas and up the west slopes of the apps. A band of snow with temperatures in the 20’s should fall to the northwest of the track. i also like the looks of Posuitve vorticity advection (PVA) heading and into the low. This could be another banding set-up for snowfall late monday night and Tuesday across the north focused on I-71.  I’m preferring The ECMWF and CMC further south and east track ideas at this point. With the banding and ratios around 15:1 amounts reaching winter storm criteria could occur. For the east and southeast WAA should warm the region above freezing with a dry slot after some snow late Monday into Tuesday with much lighter accumulations.

– snow showers are likely with more accums Wednesday.

– My thinking about the 15th timeframe the past several days is similar to the 18z gfs. we see a week front running system saturday with a mix then some cold behind it to set the stage for a battleground in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys with low  pressure in the southern plains  and a winter storm.

– However by the 25th a major thaw warning has been issued with melting frostys, good agreement from the ECMWF weeklies and GFS ensembles on this.

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7 Responses to “starting a 10 day period where old man winter in is charge”

  1. jeff Says:

    you change your mind with every model run, like accuweather, like rolo, models have to be consistent to make that type of prediction, you gave us an inch in london, then changed ur mind and said 2-6, then went back to 1 inch and we ended up getting 4

    • mitchg Says:

      also look at the where I had the regions set-up when i went 2-6 the county over was 1-3 which is a clue to expect lower then the change back to 1 the next county over was 1-3. meaning it’s not that much flopping as it seems. However you are right that forecast did bust for London. I have less experience with banding snows and starting with today’s snow 1/11 started using the modeling that does best with banding snowfall. there’s more into making these forecasts than models such as map analysis etc as well that I show from to time.

  2. mitchg Says:

    seeing major concerns for snow east of 1-75 tuesday
    1. WAA
    2. dry slot

    hard to get an accumulating snowfall being south and east of the low track.

  3. mitchg Says:

    latest SREF really pushing snow further north sunday night and monday.

  4. mitchg Says:

    power out in frankfort, georgetown and portions of anderson and woodford counties

    use common sense when trying to heat your home!!

  5. jeff Says:

    on radar returns, doesnt look like southern system is furthern north than models had,looks like systems precip is going to collide

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