recap of mesoscale snow bands


First a comment that the official snow report at bluegrass airport seems off to me overall with only 1 inch measured in the last 48 hours and a depth of 3 inches, either picked a snow drift and high bias due to blowing snow or unmeasured the snow. cocorahs reports measured 3 inches of accumulation in Lexington. To me this sends a red flag about the official snow measurement at bluegrass airport, Casey county saw 3.7 inches with many areas in southeast Kentucky getting 5-7 inches.  The set-up was for organized snow showers to develop into bands which trained over the same regions and with temperatures well below freezing in most places snow accumulated quickly on the order of a few inches in spots.

looking ahead to early next week it seems around .25 qpf should fall. round 1 will bring snow to the south Monday with round 2 focused across the central and north. snow ratios still look around 15:1 for the central and north with 10:1 further south.

still expecting a winter storm around the 15th


2 Responses to “recap of mesoscale snow bands”

  1. james Says:

    Thanks Mitch! I was just looking ahead the next two weeks on the 12z gfs and it shows several storm systems but with the freezing line north of Ky. for most of them. I thought we were suppose to have arctic air in here. Is the gfs missing this or what? Thanks again.

  2. mitchg Says:

    12z gfs was far warmer than any of it’s ensembles the 18z run is much closer to my thinking for the day 10 timeframe. the ecmwf has hinted in that direction as well.

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