Trend toward the ECMWF model?


Tonight I’m seeing the modeling trend toward the past few ECMWF runs.

1. First with our disturbance Wednesday night the NAM has backed off on qpf while the GFS has increased with a hundredth or two for the south which is line with the past several ECMWF runs.

GFS qpf

for now I’m going with a mix of light rain and snow likely along the tenn line Wednesday afternoon and night with some coatings of snow. Flurries and sprinkles are still in the forecast from the southern ky pkwy to I-64.

2. the ECMWF in the past few runs has been picking up on several disturbances instead of one organized clipper. now the GFS and NAM have come to this solution. The NAM is likely overdone with with qpf but may have the regions right that see around .1 qpf while the GFS is to general. As a track from Iowa to far western Kentucky thus all snow regionwide.

NAM friday morning

NAM qpf

NAM Saturday morning

I’m thinking both of these disturbances Friday and Saturday morning could provide for light snow accumulations. I’ll wait for one more set of model runs before making a FIRST CALL.

On to what I still think should be a complex and prolonged winter system for the region. The GFS is a joke one run is into the lakes the next way out to sea. That being said the 00z gfs matches up with the 12z euro  from Tuesday which was the furthest south and east of Tuesday’s model but is a little further off the east coast. with the cmc and jma still cutting the storm into the lakes. I think neither extreme is correct. One low moves along the gulf coast Sunday with some snow for the south with a second low diving into the southern plains from the Rockies as this low barrels east across the south bringing a band of snow eastward with it. Overall seems like a good idea to let the models fight it out. Teleconnections argue against the lakes cutter and the GFS typically does something like this at 168 hrs out.

Further out the arctic cold is coming and the 14 day is updated with a threat for below zero temps.

Oh by the way ther birmingham duel is still on for the cats game saturday


nws at time of duel-47

Looks like a wash now though the nws in birmingham is still higher with temps.

New duel this time with accuweather for Jan 18

Accuweather- 49

Me- 9

00z gfs- around 0 early in the day falling to 10 below zero late in the day

40 degree difference folks.


One Response to “Trend toward the ECMWF model?”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Mitch, check out the 6z GFS, has a nice low over eastern KY next Tuesday, looks pretty good for snow, espescially with droping temps.

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