rough ideas on the storm early next week


– yesterday i discussed the upcoming disturbances coming through this weekend. starting tonight I’ll update on the individual impulses which will bring periods of snow showers to the region from later today into Saturday around an inch of snow by Saturday is expected in most places with upslope getting over an inch through Saturday.  Eventhough light accumulations may lead to a few slick spots periodically the event will be spread out over several days meaning winter weather advisories will likely not be issued for much of the region.

Now onto some thoughts for the early next week storm

– A lot of what i like to call secondary models the Canadian, navy nogaps, dgex  have a gone toward a more phased solution and a bigger system with a decent amount of qpf  for early next week

– the gfs is showing more ridging off the southeast coast on the 00z run this would allow for some northward movement and thus this run has .25-.5 qpf against the 12z run which had under .1.

– precipitation should be all snow with all borderline values for a mix or rain well to the south

– now it appears the ecmwf is out in left field, going into monday night’s runs I was going to point out the gfs is to likely to fast with the first system as it likes to quickly move things along. the ecmwf has the reverse bias holding energy back. Either bias allows for the southern low further east to escape and have little interaction with the second low further west. now the gfs bias has corrected and it has a decent snow for the region. I’ll be curious to see if the ecmwf does the same thing if so then confidence will increase for a decent accumulating snow early next week.

– snow ratios could be around 15:1 looking at gfs bufkit

one more thing I’m sensing the potential for a winter defining storm around the 15th still which will be followed by the arctic blast.


4 Responses to “rough ideas on the storm early next week”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    “winter DEFINING storm”…… interesting

  2. mitchg Says:

    I”m thinking that may be a big system for the region. Still early.

    some points for today
    1. the 00z ecmwf has trended toward more interaction/phasing between the two lows with the other modeling, however it still holds back the second system to much.
    2. winter weather advisory for eastern kentucky for tonight, amounts over an inch should be in the upslope regions.

  3. tornadolarkin Says:

    Canadian seems, a little extreme on this weekend’s cold. Think so?

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