what to do with wednesday night?

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1. The nam has the mixed precipitation back for Wednesday evening across the region while most of the models remain dry.

NAM wed pm

GFS

for now I’ll keep a chance for flurries and sprinkles, but the NAM solution could bring a coating of snow to central portions of the region Wednesday night with the south seeing a mix of rain and snow.

my thinking of a clipper coming through friday looks likely the 00z gfs has a good track for some light accumulating snowfall in the region.

the 12z ecmwf from monday was stronger with the clipper which allowed for a further north track, this will be something to watch. A weaker clipper should track to our southwest while a stronger clipper provides accumulating snow to Ohio and far northeast ky.  the ecmwf and nam are much slower on the timing for now i think the highest snow chances are friday afternoon and night from the clipper with lighter snow showers from thursday into saturday around the clipper.

Moving on to early next week both the gfs and cmc allow the arctic air to escape quickly gives us a cutter into the Ohio valley which would bring WAA north and allow for mixes with rain and ice. I don’t think so I like the ECMWF’s idea of making a storm in the southern branch and the not the northern one. two systems one across the northern Rockies the other over the deep south which spread snow across the region early next week phasing with a low over the southeast in the Tuesday timeframe. This cuts off any WAA making any change to mix or rain quickly back to snow. This fits in with the bias of the gfs to place too much emphasis on the northern branch forming the main low to far northwest and then it’s to late by Wednesday morning when the model figures out the low should be on the east coast and then looks really funky around 180 hr

for now i still think this is mainly snow or all snow with a threat for decent accumulations early next week.

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One Response to “what to do with wednesday night?”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Hey Mitch,
    These two images look good to me, what about you?

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