forecast for the first part of the week

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1. overall I see seasonable conditions Monday through Wednesday with a zonal but spilt flow pattern with highs in the upper 30’s and low 40’s with lows in the 20’s with some teens this morning. highs pressure will keep things dry.

2. yesterday it appeared modeling was trending toward a period of light snow or mix Wednesday night. Recent runs have little to no precipitation with this for now I will leave in a chance for flurries and sprinkles highs thursday should be in the mid 30’s.  This should also be accompanied by an additional northern branch arctic front which will increase winds from the north and bring in arctic air to the region by Friday.

3. Temperatures Friday should be in the 20’s with some spots reaching the 30-35 range for highs. A clipper or strong disturbance is likely to generate some snow showers or a period of snow the 00z GFS and Sunday’s 12z euro show this feature well. However I’ve already tried to take the bait on a forecast first for a lakes cutter, nw flow is going to be stronger than i thought several days ago.  the second attempt was jumping on the model solution for a week low pressure early thursday for a light snow swath which modeling backed off on. I’m going to wait for another set of model runs to show the clipper before buying in to the solution.

4. A preview arctic blast to the big one coming for the third week of Jan around the 16th will move in this weekend will continued nw flow and well below normal temperatures. one or two snow systems should follow next week.  there should be one low in the northern Rockies and another in the gulf coast. Are these two small systems or phase for one snowfall for the region?

5. I’m targeting the 15th timeframe  for a major winter storm right before the biggest cold blast of the winter. the 14 day forecast is now updated. Also I notice the AO tanking by this timeframe to record low values again another sign major cold is on the way.

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3 Responses to “forecast for the first part of the week”

  1. vinny Says:

    WOW!
    Really liking your 14 day for Heavy Snow for two straight days..!
    Thanx for all your hard work Mitch!

  2. tornadolarkin Says:

    Ok Mitch, this is actually pretty disturbing.

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