slight risk of severe storms overnight

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the good news over the last few hours is the amount of bulk shear and heilcity have decreased lowering the threat overnight. Overall a tornado outbreak occurred from MS into AR and MO with very little instability and considerable shear on new years eve. Thus you can see my concern over a low instability high shear set-up. Many forecasters just use LI or CAPE to forecast severe weather I do not. Now you know why as these values would have left one not knowing of the severe chance. Lucky for us this go around the highest values of shear set-up west of us. Also earlier in the week the forecast which hit home the point for brief freezing rain was also valid as many regions north of bowling green had 31* and light freezing rain for a while along with several spots out east. I’ll need to revise the winter outlook which now looks to be a forecast failure overall but of the good kind if you like cold and snow. Also past day 4 model mayhem takes full effect.  

happy new year folks!!!

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2 Responses to “slight risk of severe storms overnight”

  1. james Says:

    Happy New Year Mitch! Looks like Old Man Winter may not be done with us yet 🙂

  2. mitchg Says:

    friday’s highs may be have to be lowered quite a bit if the 12z gfs has any merit.

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