squall line to track today

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to our west near the St.Louis area is another case of very little CAPE and high LI values will signal little to instability yet the amount of shear in place is sufficient for the development of severe and tornadic storms along a squall line. It continues to surprise me how some forecasters fall for this case again and again going for no severe weather just based on little instability. This squall line has a zone of high shear values and marginal instability ahead of it today to keep it going. By this evening this squall line should close in on western Kentucky.

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

spc

this has already come and east in recent days so we’ll see how the line evolves today.

SPC Day1 1300Z Outlook Categorical

damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and hail are possible with storms tonight. ahead of the line southerly winds will increase and many of us will make a run at 60.

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One Response to “squall line to track today”

  1. mitchg Says:

    severe threat over. happy new year
    here is the preview into the first post of 2011
    1. normal week 1 and below normal for week 2 with the new ecmwf weeklies backing up the gfs.
    3. winter outlook to be revised many of you will like these revisions!!!!
    4. model mayham past mid week

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