rain to start 2011


1. Today should feature a mostly cloudy skies with increasing southerly winds and highs from the mid 50’s to low 60’s. This all in advance of a strong frontal system that is providing a midwest blizzard and severe storms to our south. Rain develops ahead of the front after midnight tonight  and moves from west to east. Some thunderstorms are possible within the long period of rain and some marginal instability may be present for a strong storm or two across the region that may produce gusty winds.

the spc has a slight risk for western KY where there is  marginal instabilty this coupled with strong shear may lead to some storms becoming severe.

2. Temperatures should be falling on Saturday for the new year with the period of rain lasting most of the day. The cold enough air to produce snow makes a run at the region and may just be enough for this rain to end very briefly as snow out east. Overall the NAM is overdone on QPF, amount of precip that falls and the GFS rainfall of around 1/2 inch to 3/4 inch seems right. By Sunday morning temperatures will be in the mid 20’s to near 30 as winds switch direction from the south to northwest. Highs Sunday should get close to 40 with some clearing.

3. 14 day has been updated.


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