ending 2010 with a quick thaw and a Janurary 2011 updated forecast

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1. We have a few days before that, I know many of you are looking forward to spring already. Today and Tuesday high pressure will be over the region with lows in the 10’s and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s Monday with lows Monday night in the 10’s, Highs Tuesday will be in the 30’s. Tuesday night will have warmer lows in the 20’s as return flow starts as the high pressure moves east of the region.

2. Wednesday this return flow will also bring an increase in clouds and moisture producing light precipitation by evening. I also expect many regions to be right around freezing when the precipitation starts after highs in the 33-38 range. Light precipitation should begin as a period of freezing rain and sleet from Lexington northeast and in many eastern Kentucky valleys where low level cold can hang on longer. Other locations may start as a few sleet pellets due to low initial dewpoints before quickly changing to light rain. any glaze in the northeast and east will be less than 1/10th inch and change to rain as temperatures rise Wednesday night.

3. Thursday and Friday will feature cloudy skies and increasing southerly winds with the chance for rain showers with temperatures topping 50 by friday. This leads us into what should be an active new year with a frontal boundary similar to our thanksgiving event which featured strong storms followed by a changeover to accumulating snow. Right now I like the looks of the 12z euro and cmc runs from Sunday. The GFS is playing catch up but is still to fast ejecting all of the energy into the plains next weekend. Here is the 12z cmc since the ECMWF model images can’t be shown due to copyright laws from the ECMWF organization, paid access is required to see the model.

precipitation sat am

thickness/heights  sat am

thickness/heights sat pm

precipitation sat pm

precipitation sun am

thickness sun am

precipitation sun am

right now thunderstorms would be likely new years day followed by a change to snow and rapid temperature drops. Several inches of accumulating snow would fall from Arkansas to Indiana.

looking ahead to the 14 day I’ve figured out january pattern. the good news is it;s not 3-5*F above average but the bad news it should still be a normal or warmer than normal January as la-nina will start to assert itself.

general Jan 2011 jet and storm track cone (dashed)

temperature for jan 2011

precipitation for jan 2011

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