FIRST CALL: less phased solution


This first call reflects a more disorganized and less phased system.

– snow develops Christmas eve from west to east

– steady light snow lasts till around noon Christmas day

– snow showers through sunday

qpf for most of us looks to be from .1 to .2 through saturday with addtional qpf from snow showers through Sunday. The northern portion of the storm should focus a band of snow along the 1-64 regions  while the southern branch should focus snow over Tennessee. In between and to the north lighter snow will fall.

ratios map, with temperatures in the 20’s for the north ratios will run closer to 15:1 with the bufkit profiles ranging from 10-15:1.

let’s take a look at the 12z nam which may be a tad overdone with the qpf from the northern disturbance

friday afternoon

notice the separation with the system

Friday night

saturday afternoon


– snow develops friday night with lows in the 20’s.

– tapers to snow showers Christmas day highs near 30.

– snow showers sunday with temperatures in the 20’s.

snowfall map

the dashes represent the best chance at 3 inches within the very broad 1-3 region. the 3-5+ includes the upslope and snow showers on sunday.

I’ll update later tonight and again by early tomorrow afternoon for christmas eve with another update late Friday night. my plan is to comment only Christmas day with no post. I expect a winter weather advisory to be issued sometime friday for the region. This means that Christmas eve through sunday slick spots will be likely and caution is advised. the 3-5+ is drawn out not meeting winter storm warning criteria.

by the way that 00z euro run was wetter thus a good confidence in this forecast, once again the dashed regions in the 1-3 region represent where the best chance for 3 totals are.


5 Responses to “FIRST CALL: less phased solution”

  1. mitchg Says:

    the 12z ecmwf is wetter for the region with a general .25 qpf.

  2. rolo Says:

    mitch new nam throwing more wetter, shwing phasing back in mizz possible, tonite runs could change ther gamer.

    ty for ur work, io respect u alot.

  3. mitchg Says:

  4. mitchg Says:

    00z nam increasing snow showers and squalls for sunday could be another 1-3 on just sunday if correct!!

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