new 00z ecmwf run later tonight a big one

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wow is all i have to say to the sudden wetter trend of both the nam and gfs.  

let’s review why again, back to phasing of energy from the north and south. The trend for the past 36 hours has been less phasing and storm formation much further southeast and a light snowfall for Kentucky. However the 00z runs the first set of model runs with additional upper air data are now showing considerably more phasing thus quicker storm formation and more snow.

take a look at the last two nam runs  

00z  nam 500 mb map  for christmas morning  ( already phased)

18z nam run for Christmas morning 500 mb map

the 00z gfs is more phased than the 18z run but not as drastic.

timeline

– snow develops christmas eve

– snow and wind for Christmas day

– snow showers through sunday

– accumulation forecast if the trends hold is much more than last night.

– the euro as of now still shows no snow for Lexington and an inch for the ky/ten line with the 12z run from Wednesday.

FIRST CALL  delayed till tomorrow afternoon due to the rapid change in modeling solutions. Those with travel plans should be advised snow is likely after dark christmas eve lasting into christmas day with accumulations with some slick spots.

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One Response to “new 00z ecmwf run later tonight a big one”

  1. Seth Says:

    Hey Mitch,

    Would this christmas storm be considered as taking one of the “8% storm tracks” of your winter forecast?

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