model wars still ongoing

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eventhough the solutions last night confirmed a much slower phasing solution thus making it an east coast blockbuster or bust with lighter snows here. We still have the option of a 1-3 perhaps 2-4 snow on the table if the ratios are high enough.  We still have two model camps

A: the grinch camp

this camp is led by the nam and ecmwf(00z) which keep snowfall of an inch or two for the south while giving the majority of the state nothing.

B: the santa claus camp

the gfs and the cmc ( this has been the most consistent model throughout) showing a general period of snow christmas eve into Christmas day with an inch or more regionwide.

I’ll make my FIRST CALL later tonight

right now I know this

– areas from Bowling Green to somerset have a very good chance for a 1-3 snow

– chances decrease further north

– bigger 4 or more storm not going to happen due to phasing issues ( refer to previous post)

– my intution is thinking is the regionwide snow may be correct

– as you can see by the # of non weather graphics I’m in full holiday mode lol.

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8 Responses to “model wars still ongoing”

  1. mitchg Says:

    mid afternoon model war update

    – the nam may be starting to switch sides to santa claus with it’s 18z run
    – cmc holds firm in the santa claus camp

  2. james Says:

    Mitch, what does the latest Euro say?

  3. mitchg Says:

    james: around .1 qpf for the south with very small amounts elsewhere.

  4. mitchg Says:

    so far the 00z nam looks a little more favorable at the 500 mb level.

  5. Joseph Says:

    Mitch what about Somerset and Liberty areas. Liberty 3-4?? Somerset 2-3?

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