drizzle and freezing drizzle

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1. This morning light snow will change to drizzle for most with light freezing drizzle along the Ohio river today. Highs should range from the low 30’s along the Ohio river to upper 40’s in the bowling green region. Also some patchy fog is possible as well. The low pressure which brought the overrunning precipitation yesterday will stall and weaken over the region. The end result is more drizzle and freezing drizzle perhaps mixed with flurries into Thursday morning. temperatures will range from the upper 20’s at night to mid 30’s for highs Wednesday.

for this morning the NWS in Jackson has issued a winter weather advisory for most of eastern KY.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1251 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

…LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CREATING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS…

.MILDER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IS CAUSING LIGHT SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT…BUT OCCASIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING. BY THEN…
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

KYZ050-058-059-069-088-111-114-116-117-211500-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0019.101221T0551Z-101221T1500Z/
MONTGOMERY-ESTILL-POWELL-JACKSON-HARLAN-LEE-OWSLEY-CLAY-LESLIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNT STERLING…IRVINE…STANTON…
MCKEE…HARLAN…BEATTYVILLE…BOONEVILLE…MANCHESTER…HYDEN
1251 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 AM EST THIS MORNING.

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FALL AT TIMES…BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN
DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB.

MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE.

2. Thursday we may see a little sun for a few hours in the afternoon between systems with highs from the low to upper 30’s across the region with morning lows in the 20’s.

3. Now on to the storm. My thoughts are going to stay unchanged. The north has snow develop Friday and last through christmas eve into christmas day with a good chance for 4 or more inches. Across the south  rain or a rain/snow mix develops friday then changes quickly to snow with several inches of snow. The key is not to jump on any one model run as shifts in the track are still likely untill the storm enters the upper air network Wednesday.  One thing I notice is the isentropic lift appears to be stronger in the plains than when the storm is over the Ohio valley in the modeling. Strong lift will be needed to see the best chance at 4 or more inches of snow.  Overall thinking the gfs is more on target than the ecmwf which has shifted way to the south as of the 12z run.

4. check out the 14 day. the euro through day 10 is cold and the gfs through the 16 day period is even colder, the AO and NAO still are – as well.

5. I have started to make a few small changes to the site, notice out to the side a new meteorology 201 has been added mainly to define some of the topics i have discussed recently. Also another accomplishment this semester winning the University of Georgia weather contest. This contest was the daily preparation of forecasts for several cities over the fall, 96 total forecasters competed in this contest from 4 different meteorology universities. A few weeks ago I finished in 1st overall and wanted to thank my audience for giving the chance to develop my forecasting skills on a daily basis and keeping complaints to a minimum when I have to spend my energy on other forecasts.

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2 Responses to “drizzle and freezing drizzle”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Good job mitch!!

  2. Seth Says:

    1st place! That’s pretty awesome!

    12z gfs trended even further south, slightly lighter precip totals as well.

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