boo your favorite model

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there all the same now the euro scores some points for getting it right first. game over folks northern ky gets a white christmas from what’s on the ground. southern and eastern  ky picks up an inch or more christmas day, white christmas there.  I-64 in some doubt now as snowcover currently around an inch which may even some more and little accumulation is now expected christmas day.

here is a youtube video of your reaction.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBJEfmQA9q4

let’s get into the why the models are picking up on a slower movement of the southern energy while keeping the northern energy moving at the same speed. The end result is there is no phasing to pull the low pressure developing further northeast and the end result is a track along the gulf coast with ample cold air in place for a snow event with limited moisture.

Let’s break down the 00z nam at the 500 mb level which shows us heights and vorticity ( shows upward motion and potential low pressure development)

Friday morning

the southern energy is over texas while the northern energy is over the upper midwest

Christmas eve

the southern energy is still back over Oklahoma much further west than in past runs. the northern energy accelerates east at the same speed.

Christmas morning

– the energy still hasn’t phased/ combined by Saturday morning. This is needed for surface low formation across the tenn valley as what has been shown on the models the last several days.  The phasing should hold off till Saturday night when the storm is almost out to sea. By the way the east coast could have seen a  foot if the phasing  occurred sooner, now little snow is also expected there.

GFS QPF for event, the one bright spot is snow ratios will have to be calculated for tomorrow’s FIRST CALL, likely higher than 10:1.

my early thoughts are changed to light snow an under 1 inch from 1-64 north with a 1-3 band for the southern half of the state. any rain mix will be brief across the south. This storm is looking more like a cousin of the grinch storm we saw a few Christmases ago with an inch of rain and 40*.

speaking of the grinch here is ready to gloat over the latest model runs cutting into the white christmas chances

let’s give him the model runs a big round of boos just like the philly fans in the video. I’m also posting the short video below in the comments section. On another note the GFS is backing off the arctic blast for the new year. The well hyped thaw may be soon upon us but not before a winter defining storm to end 2010. It isn’t much of surprise none of the models have the correct solution yet.

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2 Responses to “boo your favorite model”

  1. mitchg Says:

  2. mitchg Says:

    cmc model actually keeps the same solution.

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