southern trend in the track


Alright folks a quick afternoon post about the christmas eve storm, the track has shifted south. To far south in my view. A northward correction is likely but my early forecast thoughts will likely need be adjusted colder and perhaps a touch drier if the ecmwf qpf appears more likely. Eventhough I sense panic that the snowstorm will go south, this is quite a bit different from 24 hours where a lot of you we’re expecting rain. Moral of the story is not to jump from one run to the next this thinking should be saved for Wednesday once upper air data is gathered for the storm. By the way the biggest issue now is getting an inch or two or getting 4 or more inches, we’re doing good.  

On other news I’ll be revising the website some over the next week or two, adding new links removing the older ones and adding new pages, so expect lots of interesting new tools to become available to enhance your world of weather.

Also if you want to see more cold and snow the next 16 days look at the 12z gfs another frigid, snowy run of the model. I’m still looking for the thaw in the long range.


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