breaking down the 00z gfs for the christmas eve storm

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– first an update on our first system the best lift appears to be even further north and weaker than discussed yesterday this means only a period of light snow and freezing drizzle for the north with only very light accums then light rain showers for Tuesday regionwide coupled with fog.

However there appears to be good model agreement between the 00z gfs from Monday and the 12z euro from Sunday.

since the euro data can’t be shown to the public without paid access, we’ll discuss the gfs.

Friday morning

850 mb level

surface

Friday 1 pm et

Christmas early eve

Christmas eve

christmas morning

christmas afternoon 850 mb only

regions along and north of 1-64 see mainly snow with some brief early afternoon mixes with the potential for 4 or more inches. areas east of 1-65 and south of 1-64 see rain change to snow with the potential for a few inches of snow. while areas in the southwest portion of the region  see rain change to snow and smaller accumulations. ANY TRACK CHANGE EVEN 20 MILES COULD ALTER MY VERY EARLY FORECAST THOUGHTS. Again they mirror the 12z euro and 00z gfs discussed above.

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6 Responses to “breaking down the 00z gfs for the christmas eve storm”

  1. mitch Says:

    the 00z runs of the cmc and euro came in much colder overnight. if the euro is correct the entire region sees an almost all snow event for christmas eve.

  2. mitchg Says:

    that entire 12z gfs run through the 16 days is impressive.

  3. mitchg Says:

    the 12z guidence trended south with the euro and cmc trending 200 miles south. this is to far south in my view. I sense panic about the snow going south now. remember the more likely correction is now north after such a massive trend south.

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