forecast for the week

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– still the same general idea with one system early the other late. Teleconnections continue to indicate a colder than normal pattern will be in place.

1. This morning will be a cold one with lows from 5 in the north and east to 15 near bowling green, a snow and ice cover makes the difference. Highs sunday with more sunshine should get close to 32 with 30’s south.

2.  Our first system actually splits into two one heads across the upper midwest the other across the south. This means more WAA with the northern system being  the main low. Once again increased jet energy and isentropic lift allow for the development of precipitation over the northern and eastern sections of the region. Highs should be near 30 after a cold start in the 10’s with increasing clouds and warm air advection. This period of snow Monday night may leave some accumulations of 1-2 inches for the Covington and Maysville regions with an inch for Lexington, Louisville and Ashland. Temperatures should be steady Monday night in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Although the forcing mechanisms for precipitation development Monday night are the same the amount of jet energy and isentropic lift are much less thus top qpf of only around .1-.2 is expected.

isentropic map for pressure, again a isentropic map shows the regions of pressure and moisture advections occur, where this happens lift is likely which is key for precipitation development.  

– notice this time there is pressure advection but not to the extent of last system

For the mositure advection the best region for this is in southern ohio in terms of mixing ratios. Thus this is where the primary snowband sets-up could be 3 or 4 inches. for us the band forms overhead Monday night before moving northeast leaving much lighter amounts. With our region in the warm sector light rain showers are likely Tuesday with highs in the 30’s north and 40’s for the south.

3. By Wednesday clouds and flurries clear out early for some sunshine with lows in the upper 20’s and  highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s from north to south.

4. This brings us to the second system the 00z gfs  is to strong and to far north in my view trying to bundle energy in the  Rockies where the low should be over western texas by Thursday. I would also like the great lakes high slightly farther south. All of these variables will lead to changes in the track from run to run. the 18z run blasts the region with heavy snow, south mix while the 00z gfs is a mix with rain for the south. The timing is christmas eve and .3-.8 qpf could fall so this storm will be watched closely this week. temperatures for Thursday and Friday should be in the 20’s and 30;’s.  These types of systems usually track from western texas and across the tenn valley to our south. The 12z ecmwf tracks the 850 mb low along I-64 then moves it into WV, this would give the northern sections of the region heavy snowfall, the ECMWF also has some phasing problems. The DGEX,CMC and JMA have a further track south which means several inches of snow for the region on christmas eve. Stay tuned as snow accumlations will affect the holidays with either a warmer or colder solution. Again I tend to think the southern track- colder solution will be correct at this time.

5. Have no fear the white-o-meter to see if we’re going to going have a white christmas is ready to hit 10/10 due to widespread backend snow showers with accumulations, blowing snow could add to the fun as well. even if  the low tracks overhead or north  the snow showers are a good bet. Temperatures won’t hit freezing on Christmas day.

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7 Responses to “forecast for the week”

  1. mitchg Says:

    check out the 14 day. brrr.

  2. mitchg Says:

    the remainder of the 00z models were farther north on both systems.

  3. mitchg Says:

    if the 12z euro follows up it’s 00z run frz rain will be added to the forecast for fri.

  4. mitchg Says:

    it didn’t much less favorable profile for ice on the 12z euro run. more snow or rain to snow for the south. 12z euro white christmas regionwide.

  5. rolo Says:

    mitch rain MIX for 1-64 SOUTH with mayube and i mean maybe half to a inch late christmas dfat.

  6. Seth Says:

    Given past trends, I can imagine that the 18z gfs that just came out is pretty close to what will happen. Rain on the front end going over to snowshowers and squalls on christmas day for Kentucky, hopefully enough for sledding!

  7. mitchg Says:

    the 18z gfs shows even if the low takes the northern track a white christmas still follows.

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