7:30 pm update: SPC MD 2129

by

– freezing rain to delevop soon

– bwg at 32 now should wetbulb to around 30.

MD 2129 graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010
  
   AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF SRN IL / SRN IND / WRN-CNTRL KY / NRN TN
  
   CONCERNING…FREEZING RAIN
  
   VALID 160018Z – 160415Z
  
   WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
   EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS NEAR KENTUCKIANA AND N-CNTRL KY WHERE A MIX OF
   PRECIP TYPES WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HOURLY FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY APPROACH 0.05-0.10
   INCH BY 06Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KY.
  
   SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A CYCLONE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH HIGH
   PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY.  AS THE SRN
   PLAINS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NE TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE
   TONIGHT…A BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT /AIDED BY 50+
   KT SWLY LLJ/ WILL HELP IN FOCUSING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACROSS THE REGION ATOP A SLOW TO MODIFY COLD DOME.  SURFACE TEMPS
   ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEG F WITH
   DEWPOINTS 10-20 DEG F.  THIS WILL ALLOW WET BULB EFFECTS TO
   INITIALLY COOL THE SURFACE BEFORE WARMING TEMPS OVER WRN TN ADVECT
   NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN LATE…LEADING
   TO SOME CHANGEOVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN.
  
   AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES 0.5-0.75
   INCH IS NOW SPREADING INTO THE REGION.  00Z BNA RAOB SHOWS AN
   APPRECIABLE WARM LAYER /4 DEG C AT 825 MB/ FAVORING FREEZING RAIN.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW-MID LEVELS GRADUALLY COMING TO
   SATURATION IN THE 02-04Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS KY AND ADJACENT STATES.
   THIS WILL PROBABLY YIELD INITIALLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET RATES
   THROUGH 03Z.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
   FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA…ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 06Z
   AND THEREAFTER–ACTING TO ENHANCE PRECIP RATES.  THE HEAVIER RATES
   /0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR/ ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
   03-06Z PERIOD.
  
   ..SMITH.. 12/16/2010

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3 Responses to “7:30 pm update: SPC MD 2129”

  1. tornadolarkin Says:

    Sounds fun(sarcasm)

  2. mitchg Says:

    light snow falling in ft.knox and frankfort.

  3. tornadolarkin Says:

    Also, I’ve seen people calling this a bust, and will not have enough lift on CB’s site. What are you thinking?

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