12 pm update: still putting touches on final forecast

by

two key parts to this

A: isentropic lift

– where does this occur for the .5+ precipitation totals, won’t be able to do this analysis again till later today.

B: temperature profiles

– as several of you showed the 12z nam is colder for lex and jkl with a nasty ice storm for lou. however both the ecmwf and gfs are warmer aloft but not at the surface.

updated thoughts

– bwg should be downgraded to an advisory later today as ice will only get .1 maybe .2 thick before a change to rain around midnight ct.

– close to 1/2 inch of ice can be expected from areas near the bg pkwy into the Jackson region, I’ll fine tune this later today

– 3-8 snow and sleet to the north of this zone, someone could get quite a lot of sleet.

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2 Responses to “12 pm update: still putting touches on final forecast”

  1. tommy Says:

    good call mitch

  2. rolo Says:

    mitch what ur latest thoughts, give us a update my friend. i ee mainly a mix then rain around 2am in s ky.

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