FIRST CALL WED-THU

by

going with the nam for thermal profiles and the gfs for qpf.

– snow and sleet overspreads the region from southwest to northeast Wednesday afternoon

– changes to freezing rain in the southwest then plain rain along the tenn line thursday morning

– precip ends Thursday

timing

Wednesday afternoon and evening

 

Thursday 12 am

Thursday 8 am

the NAM usually has the best handle on low level cold but  the NAM appears overdone on qpf.

FIRST CALL

first total is snow and sleet the second number after the comma  is for freezing rain.  temperature forecasts will be updated in the 14 day promise. winter storm watches should go up on Tuesday.

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21 Responses to “FIRST CALL WED-THU”

  1. Joseph Says:

    Mitch, are you saying 2-4 inches of snow, with an inch of ice on top for the Henderson-Louisville to Middlesboro-Pikeville corridor. Please not ice, please be wrong on the ice.

  2. trent Says:

    i think it says a trace of ice

  3. Joseph Says:

    Hallelujah if a trace of ice.

  4. Mike S Says:

    Alright you got me here in Pulaski Co. with 2-4″ of snow/sleet…I’d take that senerio…but I’d say it’ll be a frz rain to rain mostly here….We hardly ever stay snow/sleet this far south.

  5. mitchg Says:

    WINTER STORM WATCHES REGIONWIDE.

  6. mitchg Says:

    good call by the nws. great job folks.

    • tornadolarkin Says:

      What’s interesting is that they’re calling for a quarter of an inch of ice area wide. This could get interesting.

  7. mitch Says:

    12z nam warmer.

    • Micah Says:

      Does that mean more ice or less ice Mitch?

    • tornadolarkin Says:

      Not looking good, look at this:

    • MJ Says:

      Yep…and the GFS is warmer. The issue here is NOT to focus just on surface temperatures. Its the DEPTH of the cold layer. Both the NAM and GFS significantly reduce the depth of the cold air due to strong warm air advection. This would result in more freezing rain than sleet/snow. The depth of this cold air is not a deep as January 2009…so you can’t even compare these two systems to each other. Further NE…over OH/NE KY…the cold air has more depth. Thus…more sleet/snow can be expected up that way. It is certainly possible that the warm air aloft could mix out the cold air from top to bottom resulting in temps going above freezing at the surface.

  8. mitchg Says:

    our STN WRF model at WKU has a great handle of temeperatures with past sytems incluidng a near perfect forecast for Lexington on Dec 4.
    http://geoggeol.wku.edu/~stormtopper/webpages/STNWRF_KY.html

    • tornadolarkin Says:

      So what’s it showing? I can read most models, but that one I cannot read.

    • MJ Says:

      Your WRF graphics seem a bit off. If the red line is the 2m temperature and the blue line is the 2m dewpoint, your WRF run has large areas of supersaturation. That can’t be right.

      Not to knock the WRF, but it usually does not handle surface temperatures worth a dang. That is not surprising especially if you are running it at high resolution. I have found that keeping the horizontal resolution above 10km seems to have better surface temperature skill scores.

      -MJ

  9. mitch Says:

    thanks for the feedback.

  10. mitch Says:

    STN WKU forecast meeting for Bowling Green this afternoon

    – period of snow and sleet
    – quick change to frz rain by 00z thu am which lasts to 09z with ice accumulations of .1-.25
    – change to rain

  11. mitchg Says:

    lexington gets blasted on 00z nam. bwg, lou slightly warmer. more snow ashland, maysville.

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