Winter to the extreme


That  sums this december for the region so far and will be the same this week. Overall I think the snow was to little out west but good elsewhere, might have been to light out east when all is done.

1. upslope snows with the nw flow and the upper level energy will lead to another few inches of snow today out east with the bluegrass and Louisville regions seeing snow showers  due to moisture coming off the great lakes with flurries elsewhere . temperatures will be steady in the  10’s throughout the day with strong nw winds making for wind chills in the single digits. Monday night  the east stays cloudy with lows closer to 10, however skies clear out southwest of the Lexington metro and lows should drop close to 0 in the Bowling Green region under the high pressure with a snow cover. with some lingering winds wind chills will be below 0 on Tuesday for a time.

2. On Tuesday Skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the 20’s.

3. Wednesday our next storm approaches with snow developing thickness values rise above 540 and the 850 mb temps go above freezing Wednesday night for most areas with surface temperatures below freezing. This means snow will mix with and change to freezing rain. Enough warm air may move into the Bowling Green region for a change to rain with temperatures very close to freezing.  The amount of liquid is still up for debate with the gfs much lighter than the NAM recent ECMWF runs have been going back and forth as well. The main forcing for this precipitation will be lift, more lift more precip. There is still a good chance portions of the state see enough freezing rain to qualify for an ice storm (1/4 inch). As we all know Ice storms can produce significant hazards. This storm lasts into Thursday. A band of snow and sleet will be north of the areas that see freezing rain. If we see a trend in modeling it should be colder as the models have a hard time dealing with arctic air and snow cover.

4.  No warm-up in site with 20’s and 30’s for highs and yet another winter storm with snow could be upon us Saturday. Though I need to see more models and runs pick up on this. This storm would be snow or nothing.

5. Another system of some sort should head our way before christmas with a very cold pattern in place as the AO is extremely negative now. Odds for a white Christmas are good this year. My white chirstmas definition is any snow on the ground or if even a trace of snow falls.


28 Responses to “Winter to the extreme”

  1. Mike S Says:

    Close to 4″ here in Pulaski Co. and still a moderate snow. Have snow drifts in places over a foot.

  2. mitchg Says:

    from reports was underdone in the east and west while correct in the central, south and bluegrass regions. Once again I’m skeptical of a bluegrass airport measurment of 1.8 inches of snow fallen and 4 on the ground, I was there saturday and no snow was on the ground. How do you go from a measurement of 1.8 to 4?

  3. mitchg Says:

    warming trends on the 12z runs today. good news for bowling green, london and and south central kentucky bad news for lexington, louisville and covington.

  4. Seth Says:

    I am surprised the upcoming Wed-Fri system is not more supressed to the south of Kentucky given all the cold air in place.

    Nasty runs of the 12z gfs and 12z nam. No ice, please!!!

  5. tommy Says:

    yea the 12z name was putting 6 to 8 inches across the covington area with this, but i think the closer in time we get the more i see a rain in the south, ice in the central areas and just snow in the far north like boone, kenton, campbell,…the nam also is pumping out quite a bit of qfp in contrast to the gfs which still shows up to 1/2” liquid the nam showing some areas over 1” qfp

  6. Seth Says:

    18z nam pummels Lexington with snow! Gonna be a very close call for this upcoming system.

  7. mitchg Says:

    12 gfs ensembles say stay tuned on this weekend.

  8. mitchg Says:

    00z nam recap: colder overall

    – snowstorm for the bluegrass to pikeville
    – ice storm cave city to somerset
    – snow to ice to rain ky/tenn line

  9. vinny Says:

    hey Mitch..!

    How much snow we talking about in the Lex-Area..?

    I drove down to E-town this morning, preparing for the worst, but it was not bad at all…

  10. Micah Says:

    Mitch I am in Casey County so I am assuming I would be in the ice storm. Are we talking about enough moisture to bring down trees and powerlines or is this storm not have that much moisture?


  11. mitchg Says:

    the nam would bring a 2-4 inch event.

  12. Micah Says:

    I am in Casey County so I am assuming I would be in the ice storm. Are we talking about enough moisture to bring down trees and powerlines or is this storm not have that much moisture?

  13. mitchg Says:

  14. mitchg Says:


  15. trent Says:

    mitch do you expect any wsw going up and if so what regions.

  16. trent Says:

    an unexpected blizzard going on in london right now, got 3/4 inch in the last 2 hours

  17. MikeM Says:

    Nice site Mitch. Keep us updated on Woodford Ky weather, especially this weekend.

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