Updated thoughts

by

– snow lovers will like this!

I’m rasing totals across the board with an additional rasing for certain regions likely again tomorrow

storm timeline

– rain tomorrow evening

– switch to a period of snow, 1-3 am bwg, lou 3-5 am lex, cvg, lon 5-8 am jkl, ash, pike  up to 1 inch accumulation, around 1/2 inch for most.

– dry slot sunday morning this still shows up on the 700 mb map which is used by meteorologists to show where regions of moisture exist off the surface.

– comma-head snows on backside look more impressive coupled with increasing snow ratios and an additional vort max to track. the nam has this going across the bluegrass and northern ky with the gfs taking this across southern ky. A vort max is a region of higher vorticity which will tend to enhance snowfall. All three of these have led me to raise snowfall totals regionwide.  the vort max is shown by the X on the 500 mb level images.

GFS Sunday afternoon

GFS sunday night

NAM Sunday afternoon

NAM Sunday night

Overall I expect a general 2-4 inches of snow total for this event regionwide with the SE mountains getting addtional upslope. Where the vort max tracks higher totlas on the order of 3-6 inches may occur.

NAM snowfall

GFS snowfall

the upslope looks good folks, and a winter storm watch is up for that out east. I expect blowing snow advisories to be issued regionwide tomorrow afternoon and the watches to be upgraded to warnings.

Sunday into Monday

– numerous snow squalls

– blowing snow with winds over 30 mph

– wind chills below 0 with this arctic surge, 10’s for highs early this week with more single digit lows.

– first snow day Monday regionwide, one of five this week for some east ky schools.

– This will be a harsh period of winter which will lead to travel difficulties across the region

Updated map

upslope amounts now have the locally higher as well.

Again there are 3 factors which required totals to be raised

A: increased qpf, more liquid falls as snow more accumulates

B: increased snow ratios which doubles the impact of more qpf

C: Vort max Passing through Sunday afternoon

– a 3-6 band may be added at some point Saturday based on the track of the vort max

Looking ahead an ice storm appears to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday

A: models should trend colder getting a handle of the low level cold and snow cover

B: NAM handles low level cold best

C: 00z gfs shows a crippling ice storm almost an inch of ice for northern ky with the entire region seeing .1-.2 of ice accumulation, HIGH impact event possible for Thursday am rush.

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