FIRST CALL: weekend frontal system

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– tomorrow will be in the 40’s with mostly cloudy skies, anything on radar is virga and not reaching the ground.

Now onto the weekend.

– the 00z runs of the GFS and NAM are in good agreement for a change

– a occulded front develops a low pressure over the great lakes

– this front slows allowing for lift/overrunning along it with increasing vorticity as well leading  to the formation of a precipitation shield both in front and behind the front

– rain develops then changes to snow saturday night with accumulations, I’ll detail timing of the changeover tomorrow

-dry slot sunday morning

– snow showers windy and much colder on Sunday and Monday with increasing snow ratios

Let’s give a timeline of the 00z gfs

precipitation in progress saturday night

quick changeover to snow saturday night, note for areas behind the 0*C line some of that falls when temps are still warm.

rain changing to snow

the 700 mb pressure level, one used for measuring moisture actually gives us a better clue as to what will happen early sunday, notice the dry slot as this storm starts to follow a conveyor belt model

Sunday afternoon

the comma head of the storm  spins in with wrap-around snows and increasing ratios, upslope starts to kick in as well.

snowfall map from

00z nam

00z gfs

my map

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10 Responses to “FIRST CALL: weekend frontal system”

  1. mitchg Says:

    freezing rain threat still for late week check the 14 day.

  2. mitchg Says:

    white-o-meter starts tomorrow only 2 weeks till christmas!!

  3. Mark Says:

    Mitch- All your updates are very much appreciated!

  4. mitch Says:

    12z model update on the weekend storm: no changes

  5. mitch Says:

    dry slot holding me back from rasing totals.

  6. mitch Says:

    WINTER STORM WATCH: PIKE,HARLAN, BELL counties

  7. mitchg Says:

    00z nam continues wetter trend despite a dry slot. looks like I may have to up totals to 2-4 for some.

  8. mitchg Says:

    00z gfs shows crippling ice storm for far northern ky thursday with over 1/2 inch ice. the thursday am rush is looking nasty at this point with most folks seeing .1-.2 of qpf as sleet and freezing rain.

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