very quick turnaround

by

well the question was answered quick in a big way by tonight’s model runs. if you wanted a snowstorm your out of luck. 

some overnight thoughts

– models are phasing the pieces of the storm faster, this means a further west forming low which becomes stronger and allows it to gain latitude quicker

–  the 00z nam came in identical to the 12z euro

– the 00z gfs like the past 2 runs is having problems

– still to early to make a official forecast for accumulations

for now thinking a NAM/ECMWF blend

– rain develops saturday and lasts into Saturday night

– dry slot west to east saturday night into early sunday

– the region gets some of the comma band of snowfall on the backside and numerous snow showers with light accumulations

– upslope kicks in afterwards

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4 Responses to “very quick turnaround”

  1. mitchg Says:

    I don’t agree with the 12z nam that the cold catches the back edge of precip for a change to snow. still like rain then wrap-around snows for a 1-2 snow then upslope.

  2. Mike S Says:

    Are you going to post an update tonight Mitch?

  3. mitchg Says:

    much to talk about later

    1. cold catching this precip shield saturday night
    2. wrap-around snow showers sun-mon
    2. increasing freezing rain threat late next week

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