To cut north west or east of the apps??

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as usual this means the difference between a big snow for most of the state and a rain to snow.

Here some updated thoughts

– rain may start as a period of mix sat am before a quick change to rain

– rain to snow saturday night or early sunday

– snow then snow showers very windy and cold sunday and monday

TRACK A: ECMWF (EURO), CMC, JMA

a band of 4-8 inches tracks north of the river, with rain into early sunday. The region  gets a period of snow on the backside then snow showers with 1-3 totals all of these models show accumulations.

TRACK B (GFS,NAM,UKMET)

this would bring a much quicker to change to snow and more accumulations with the heavier snowband tracking over Kentucky.

odds: 65% track 1, 35% track 2

the 14 day forecast will stick to track 1 for now.  The respective emsembles go along with there operational runs.

A major model shift should occur in 36 hours or so as that is the storm appraches sites that can record upper air data which improves the models.

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8 Responses to “To cut north west or east of the apps??”

  1. Mike S Says:

    seems to me that the models have slowed down the system…meaning that the changeover from rain to snow wouldn’t occur until Sunday evening.

  2. mitchg Says:

    the changeover occurs well before sunday evening.

  3. mitchg Says:

    new 18z gfs is garbage even worse than the 12z. three low centers tells me this model has no clue right now. though it did shift back north a touch.

  4. mitchg Says:

    yup the nam has defected to the lakes cutter tracks and joined forces with the euro, big blow for a snowstorm.

    updated odds
    1- 74%
    2- 26%

  5. marsha Says:

    What’s new that’s the story of ky weather always a snowstorm but never a big storm but that’s ok i need to shop anyway…….

  6. mitchg Says:

    after the 00z gfs updated odds

    1-91%
    2-9%

  7. mitchg Says:

    ukmet lone dog for a southern track.

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