Turkey day Summary


Highlights: – warm with thunderstorms, and gusty winds today – rain changing to a period of snow and sleet early Friday

Discussion: Today a frontal boundary with a very tight thermal gradient will be present to our north and west with our region in the warm sector. This will result in warm and moist air continuing to surge north into the region with some sunshine in the morning, temperatures may actually top out in the in the mid 70s during the afternoon and some marginal instability may become present due to the sunshine early in the day. The frontal boundary should advance toward the region by mid afternoon with strong lift and moisture advection along this slow moving front a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms will develop and last through the evening. Rainfall from 1-2 inches is expected from late afternoon to late evening tomorrow. In addition a sufficient amount of shear is expected with the marginal instability to warrant a concern for isolated strong to severe storms during this timeframe. During the evening the region will experience a very rapid temperature drop of about 40 degrees from early evening till midnight to around 30 by sunrise Friday. The precipitation shield along the front will continue to be very slow-moving east of the region and as a result the colder airmass should catch the precipitation shield bringing a period of snow and sleet for a few hours after midnight Thursday night. Right now only light accumulations of 1/2 inch or less at best are expected on grassy surfaces only with quite a few locations not getting accumulation due to the warm ground. It should be noted one of the computer models is producing more wintry precipitation than forecasted, current thinking is this model does not have a good handle of the warmer airmass in place ahead of the front. Strong southerly winds on the order of 20-30 mph at times on Thursday will give way to northerly flow Friday for a cold, blustery and mostly cloudy day with highs in the 30s.

Take a few degrees off for the north for Thu highs. The one model is the GFS. I will post by noon detailing timing etc. Happy Thanksgiving. I should note heading into the holidays everyday will be a normal day regarding this site with the exception of Christmas day.


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