cooler weather coming

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1. We have a band of rain and thunderstorms moving in overnight. Shear indices ahead of the line are impressive leading this to be a strong line of storms with tornado watches, however the storms will quickly move out of the shear zone before entering Kentucky. This leads to the forecast of rain and thunder by sunrise Tuesday with falling temperatures from the 60’s and low 70’s morning highs to the 50’s and 40’s by days end.  Up to an inch of much-needed rain could fall ending by the afternoon.

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

2.  Some low level cold air should drain behind this first system allowing for cooler low Wednesday in the 30’s and 40’s with highs in the 60’s after the passage of a warm front in the afternoon. We should also see some lift along the warm front promoting some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Similar to several severe events this fall instability is very limited but the amount of shear present in the atmosphere may be enough to produce a few strong to severe storms late Wednesday.

3. Temperatures should rise Wednesday night with strong waa through the 60’s and then fall Thursday afternoon with the passage of another cold front. A heavy band of rain and thunder will set-up along the cold front. Also very windy conditions are expected. Colder air should continue to flood in behind the front changing to rain to sleet then snow after midnight. Models are picking up on a warm layer in the mid-levels which would promote sleet while low level cold air drains in. Overall 1-2 of inches of rain could fall on Thursday with the potential of a steady period of wintry precip Thursday night which could be very light or heavy depending on how quick the moisture departs. Right now don’t get caught up on details regarding snow/sleet, however I will note the chance for accumulations are present and GFS bufkit profiles pick up on a period of moderate snow at most locations with heavy snow at Jackson on the 00z gfs bufkit sounding for a time. The Most important point is that the holiday travel plans from Wednesday afternoon into Friday will be impacted by hvy rain/ wind/ thunder and falling temperatures.

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4 Responses to “cooler weather coming”

  1. mitch Says:

    NAM and GFS bufkit profiles on board now on Thu night. Threat for a period of moderate/heavy snow and sleet in the works, could come down hard enough to overrcome the very warm ground for light accumlations if model solutions hold. Also a little less concerned on Wednesday severe threat today.

  2. mitchg Says:

    18z gfs souding for Thursday night in Bowling Green should raise a few eyebrows, snow falling at the rate of an inch an hour for several hours, this is what could overcome the warm ground. However we also have to look at the 12z euro which appears to have a less wintry appearance suggesting only minor accunmlations for the region. overall caution is still advised.

    The blog will be updated as normal through the holiday.

  3. mitchg Says:

    have no fear another snow chance next wednesday.

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