weekend forecast

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1. A frontal boundary is moving through today overall the ridge should lead to a weaking trend with the shower activity. The best chance for showers should be in the late afternoon and evening with light rainfall amounts. highs should be able to get close to 70 once again after a chilly start in the 40’s. Some of the showers may linger into Sunday with clearing late. with cold air advection behind the front Sunday highs should only the reach the 50’s.

2. Monday a low pressure system will develop along the gulf coast and move north and east through Tuesday. The ECMWF has a glancing period of rain for late Monday while the GFS has showers Monday and heavy rain Tuesday. Temperatures will be cool in the 40’s and 50’s with east and northeast winds making these raw days. Model trends will need to be watched closely to see if this is a drought denter rainfall.

3. Most spots should be able to top 60 after lows in the 40’s as we return to southerly flow with increasing clouds and a few rain showers late. Temperatures should fall into the 30’s Thursday morning with lingering moisture could things end as snow??? Right now I can;t rule out a flake Thursday morning with nw flow highs will likely stay in the 40’s.  This is halfway between the warmer ECMWF and the cooler GFS which has snow showers and temps in the mid 30’s all day Thursday.

4. Temperatures may only slowly rebound into next weekend as the cooler pattern suggested in the winter outlook for Nov into the early winter is setting up now. We will likely not get the icy thanksgiving travels one private forecast company has for the region however several shots of arctic air are possible. Teleconnections and today’s ECMWF weekly model projections are showing signs of a colder and stormier than normal period for the region starting late next week into the middle half of December. Similar to last winter where the AO reached 6 standard deviations below normal, the AO may once again go several standard deviations below normal for this time period. Hopefully all of this may lead to some early season snow which is a characteristic of some la-nina winters, we shall see. However the indications for Jan-Feb still match the winter outlook idea warm and some drought relief.

5. I’ll update again tomorrow on the model trends for the Mon-Tue rain and the shower threat later today.

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2 Responses to “weekend forecast”

  1. mitchg Says:

    1. models trending cooler for Thursday the GFS has the candian for it’s friend showing snow showers and temperatures steady or falling through the 30’s regionwide.

    2. still model disagreement regarding the rain coverage for early next week. right now a likelyhood for showers looks good Mon-Tue.

    3. rain showers should move into the 1-65 region this afternoon and the 1-75 region by tonight. The band should be breaking up throughout the day.

  2. weekend forecast « central and eastern kentucky weather - weather information Says:

    […] posted here: weekend forecast « central and eastern kentucky weather […]

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