Thursday Thoughts

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1.  enjoy the next few days in the 70’s with sunny skies.

2. good bet for showers saturday, not a major drought denter

3. GFS and CMC have trended warmer toward ECMWF throwing any mix threat Monday-Wednesday out just a cold rain.

4. What to do in the long range. Don’t be so sure on this overwhelming arctic blast folks for the latter half of Nov, teleconnection signals are more mixed now along with most major models. They don’t have a good handle on the expected discharge of arctic air from the north pole into the US thus you’re seeing one run super warm the next with a mid winter type cold snap. Overall I suspect a least few quick blasts of cold for Nov 30’s/40’s for highs to make it below average for the month with the option of a 7-10 day cold snap of this type still on the table. the extreme duration cold could bring some systems with wintery precip threats, otherwise backlash flurries would be the only chance for snow this month. The first cool blast should be around the 19th.

5. Overall I’m seeing more signs this will be a long winter for us snow fans out there. November into December may be our best chance and still not wavering from most locations seeing 50% or slightly higher of snow for the winter.

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2 Responses to “Thursday Thoughts”

  1. Seth Says:

    Do you still believe that precipitation will be above normal throughout the winter months? I’d be happy if we just got rid of this dryness here in northern kentucky.

  2. mitchg Says:

    the trend should be wetter for the winter.

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