winter into the forecast!!!!

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the warning was clear in the winter forecast a potential early start to winter then the follow-up indicator for a favorable cold& stormy teleconnection pattern for the first of NOV ( -NAO, +PNA, -AO, -EPO), technically neutral EPO. This teleconnection pattern will only last for a few days late next week but it’s enough to get flakes into the forecast. This teleconnection pattern should be the rule from roughly Nov 18-28 as well, also you can a look at the GFS past 300 hrs and notice the consistent run to run build up of very cold air to our north. All of that means winter still looks to get off to that early start but it is still a while before this is a certainty.

1. Tonight with clear skies and low RH values once gain radational cooling should allow us to drop to around 40. Sunday and Monday will be sunny again with light winds and highs in the mid to upper 60’s again after starting in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

2.  by Tuesday a low pressure system forms along the gulf coast while a high pressure sets-up in the PA  area. In wintertime this is a good set-up for drainage of low level cold air with east/northeast winds into the region which could lead to some freezing rain in the eastern valleys. As looks like now  the deeper moisture will stay to our south with only an increase in clouds with the chance for scattered rain showers with lows in the mid to upper 30’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s Tuesday through Thursday. However lows may still be close to freezing Wednesday morning which is worth watching for the set-up above, any precip will be very light as this low forms along the east coast.

3.  The low moving up the east coast brings down another disturbance with a nice shot of cold air. The flow should become northerly to northwesterly Thursday night wiht lows in the lower to mid 30’s This disturbance with the aid of some moisture off the great lakes may very well generate some snow flurries across the region early Friday morning, the exact wind direction will determine those chances. The GFS has more of a northerly flow which puts most of the region in the flurrie chance while the ECMWF focuses a nw upslope flow snow shower event (Pikeville region). Highs should be in the 40’s Friday changing things back to sprinkles. We may change back to flurries Friday night with lows in the upper 20’s.

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9 Responses to “winter into the forecast!!!!”

  1. mitchg Says:

    a winter forecast by wxrisk mentions a dimishing la-nina which lead a cool period at the end, possible.

  2. mitch Says:

    12z euro out snow flakes fly friday night in east ky, time for nws jkl to pull the trigger.

  3. mitchg Says:

    this afternoon’s cmc model run wow!

  4. mitchg Says:

    this mornings 00z euro has highs in the mid to upper 30’s regionwide friday with accumlating snow in the high elevations out east. this is going to be another weather week.

  5. mitchg Says:

    raise temps for wed highs about 5-8 degrees from saturday forecast

  6. mitchg Says:

    lows in the 35-42 range wed am and in the low 40’s thu am, still shower chances wed-thu. best chance se ky.

  7. mitchg Says:

    update on the late week snow shower chance up by dinnertime tommorow. periods of rain regionwide today.

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