what some weather to discuss???

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1. Are you tired of red flag warnings, talk of severe drought and frost advisories then step right up I have a product for you this week.

2. Overall the 12z NAM and this mornings ECMWF are in good agreement. I’ll break down the 12z nam run over the next several days.

3. A ridge of high pressure which has brought us these sunny days, very low rh values and the stuff we tired of moves east putting us into a moist southerly flow for a change. Highs should be able to make the low to mid 80’s with increasing southerly winds and a mix of sun and clouds  as rh values are still low a fire danger continues today. Also lows in the mid 50’s on average are likely with more clouds and southerly flow.

4. The first in a series of systems approaches the ridge late Sunday into Monday, it will take a while for the atmosphere to moisten up and with a dry soil, I’m thinking the models are overdoing rainfall for Sun-Mon particularly the GFS solution which has convective feedback issues. Though an increase in clouds and some showers with thunder are likely on throughout Monday. However very little in the way of a front pushes through which means continued southerly flow and a 50’s/70’s temp spilt.

5.  A much stronger low pressure will explode over the northern plains on Tuesday with warm moist air streaming northward in addition to some cooler fall like air behind the low. This will lead to winds becoming very gusty out of the south Tuesday with the first system clearing there is a potential for limited instability Tuesday afternoon as the front nears.  A squall line of thunderstorms will likely develop later in the day. Wind direction will be changing with height which could promote thunderstorms to rotate, this is supported by high helcity and SWEAT indices ( refer to severe indices tab).  Our same temp split will continue.

NAM Tuesday pm

Nam Tuesday dinnertime

My thinking is there will be at least an isolated severe storm Late Tuesday, but instability appears limited which would hinder the threat.

6. The cool looks overhyped in the extended as the teleconnection pattern I was expecting is not showing up now and the GFS in particular has backed off big time, though a few cool days behind the front are likely.

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2 Responses to “what some weather to discuss???”

  1. mitchg Says:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=2010kyweatherworkshop

    this is a great chance to learn see the weather world here in KY upfront in person both from a academic/reserach view to the forecasting in meterology. MJ is presenting a radar training, and several of my professors from WKU will be giving talks.

  2. mitchg Says:

    the images for the nam were updated after release of this post, please refer to the ncep site for updated images. I’ll update the severe threat tommorow after the 12z runs.

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